Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 14?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 16°C in Tokyo on March 14.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not hit 16°C. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES'. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is accurately priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 16°C.
• 2 Historical weather data for March in Tokyo supports lower temperature expectations.
• 3 Liquidity in the market indicates a stable consensus among participants.
• 4 The time to expiry is unknown, which could affect volatility.
• 5 Confidence level of 80/100 suggests a strong belief in the current market probabilities.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.