Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 17?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 16°C in Tokyo on March 17.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, the consensus is that the highest temperature will not be 16°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, indicating a low likelihood of the temperature reaching that level.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 1%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, only 2 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 0.95.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.