Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or higher on March 14?

Market strongly favors temperatures below 17°C in Tokyo on March 14.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.75% for temperatures not reaching 17°C in Tokyo on March 14. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 99%, indicating a consensus on the expected weather conditions. With only 3 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 17°C.
• 2 The probability gap suggests strong confidence in the NO outcome.
• 3 Historical weather patterns in March support lower temperature expectations.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 5 Time pressure is high with only 3 hours until the market closes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.