Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on March 23?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 20°C in Tokyo on March 23.

With a market probability of 99.95% for a NO outcome, there is a strong consensus that the temperature will not reach 20°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of a higher temperature, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures reaching 20°C.
• 2 The high NO probability indicates strong confidence in cooler weather predictions.
• 3 Historical weather data for March in Tokyo supports lower temperature expectations.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics as the date approaches.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.