Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?

High probability for Tokyo's temperature to reach 21°C on March 29.

The market indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Tokyo will be 21°C on March 29, with a probability of 99.75%. The Pulse AI also supports this prediction with a 99% probability, suggesting a high level of confidence in this outcome. However, the edge of -0.75 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view among participants.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a YES outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating strong agreement.
• 3 The edge suggests no significant mispricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 4 hours, increasing urgency for market participants.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.