Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 24?

Market strongly favors temperatures below 21°C in Tokyo on March 24.

The prediction market indicates a 99.95% probability that the highest temperature in Tokyo will be below 21°C on March 24. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 99%, suggesting a strong consensus on cooler weather. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 21°C.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests confidence in cooler weather predictions.
• 3 Historical data supports a lower likelihood of reaching 21°C in late March.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, but current forecasts dominate market expectations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.