Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 28?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 21°C in Tokyo on March 28.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% likelihood that Tokyo's temperature will not reach 21°C on March 28. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome. With a confidence score of 65/100 and a time to expiry of just 1 hour, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against temperatures reaching 21°C.
• 2 High confidence level suggests stability in current predictions.
• 3 Time pressure is significant with only 1 hour until expiry.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate given the low probability of YES.
• 5 Historical weather data may support the current NO sentiment.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.