Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 30?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Tokyo's temperature on March 30.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not reach 22°C. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, suggesting a high level of confidence in this prediction. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is very low at 0.05%.
• 3 Historical weather data for late March supports lower temperatures.
• 4 Market appears to be efficiently priced with minimal edge.
• 5 Confidence level of 80/100 suggests strong reliability in current predictions.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.