Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 6°C or below on March 26?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 6°C in Tokyo on March 26.

With a market probability of 0% for temperatures being 6°C or below, the consensus indicates a high likelihood of warmer weather. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a 99% probability for temperatures exceeding 6°C, suggesting strong confidence in the forecast.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures being 6°C or below.
• 2 Current weather forecasts support higher temperatures for the date in question.
• 3 Historical data shows March temperatures in Tokyo typically exceed 6°C.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, but current data suggests low volatility.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.