Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 16?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Toronto's temperature on March 16.

Current market probabilities indicate a 98.85% chance that the highest temperature in Toronto will not reach 14°C on March 16. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market heavily favors NO outcome at 98.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a lower probability for YES at 2.65%.
• 3 Confidence in market pricing is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Edge of 1.5 indicates fair pricing without significant misalignment.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.