Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 22?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Wellington's temperature on March 22.

With a market probability of 99.65% for NO, there is a strong consensus against the highest temperature reaching 13°C. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 1.85%. The edge indicates the market is fairly priced, suggesting limited volatility in predictions.

• 1 Market heavily favors a NO outcome with 99.65% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight divergence with YES at 1.85%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 52 hours, adding urgency to predictions.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.