Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 12?

The market strongly favors temperatures above 13°C in Wellington on March 12.

With a market probability of 100% for NO, participants are confident that the highest temperature will exceed 13°C. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 99% probability for NO, indicating a strong consensus against the possibility of cooler temperatures. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1 and a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly against temperatures of 13°C or below.
• 2 Key factors include historical weather patterns for March in Wellington.
• 3 Liquidity in the market suggests strong conviction among participants.
• 4 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.
• 5 Confidence level indicates a robust agreement among market participants.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.