Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 22?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Wellington's temperature on March 22.

With a market probability of 99.65% for NO, the consensus is that the highest temperature will not reach 14°C. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a strong confidence in this outcome, although the edge indicates the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is very low at 0.35%.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 1.85%.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 31 hours, adding urgency to any potential changes.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.