Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 1?

The market strongly favors temperatures not reaching 15°C in Wellington on April 1.

With a market probability of 92.95% for 'NO', it suggests a strong consensus against the highest temperature reaching 15°C. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a slight increase in probability for 'YES' but still favoring 'NO'. The confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors temperatures below 15°C.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in cooler weather.
• 3 Historical weather data for early April may support current predictions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, with no significant fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 40 hours until the event.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.