Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 11?

The market strongly favors that Wellington's temperature won't reach 15°C on March 11.

The prediction market shows a 100% probability that the highest temperature in Wellington will not be 15°C on March 11, indicating strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 99% probability for the 'NO' outcome, suggesting confidence in the forecasted temperatures. Given the edge score of 1, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Market consensus is firmly against reaching 15°C.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates strong belief in the forecast.
• 4 Edge score suggests the market is accurately priced.
• 5 Lack of time to expiry may limit immediate changes in sentiment.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.