Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 22?

The market strongly favors that Wellington's temperature won't reach 15°C on March 22.

With a market probability of 99.75% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that the highest temperature will not hit 15°C. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 1.75%. The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Market heavily favors a 'NO' outcome for the temperature prediction.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight divergence but still aligns with the 'NO' sentiment.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, increasing the urgency of any new information.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced based on the edge of 1.5.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.