Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 30?

Wellington is unlikely to reach 15°C on March 30, with a 100% NO market probability.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 15°C on March 30, with a 100% probability for NO. The Pulse AI also aligns with this view, suggesting a very low chance of YES at 1%. Given the time to expiry is only 4 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus with 100% probability for NO.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment at 99% for NO.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Only 4 hours remain until the market expires, limiting time for changes.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.