Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 22?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Wellington's temperature on March 22.

The current market probability indicates a 98.35% likelihood that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 16°C on March 22. The Pulse AI probability also supports this, showing a 93.35% chance of a NO outcome. With a confidence level of 50/100 and an edge of 5, there is insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Weather forecasts are critical in determining temperature predictions.
• 3 Historical temperature data for March in Wellington may influence expectations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears low, impacting the reliability of predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 52 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.