Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 1?

Market favors a NO outcome for Wellington's temperature on April 1.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 18°C on April 1, with a probability of 87.5% for NO. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 15.5%, suggesting a consensus that the temperature will likely remain below this threshold.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the Pulse AI estimate.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, with only 36 hours remaining.
• 5 Market edge suggests pricing is fair, with no significant discrepancies.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.