Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11?

Market strongly favors temperatures below 19°C in Wellington on March 11.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of the highest temperature reaching 19°C, with a significant majority betting against it. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a consensus that temperatures will likely remain below this threshold. Given the confidence level of 65/100 and the edge of 0.65, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong preference for temperatures below 19°C.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of reaching 19°C.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to any potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Edge indicates that the market is fairly priced with minimal arbitrage opportunities.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.