Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 25?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Wellington's temperature on March 25.

The prediction market indicates a 99.5% probability that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 19°C on March 25, contrasting with a lower AI probability of 2% for a YES outcome. The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, with a moderate confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against reaching 19°C.
• 2 AI probability is significantly lower than market consensus.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Current weather forecasts support the NO outcome.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trading activity.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.