Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 16?

Market favors temperatures below 20°C in Wellington on March 16.

The prediction market indicates a 65% likelihood that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 20°C on March 16. With a confidence level of 55 out of 100, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting a moderate level of certainty among participants. The AI model's probabilities also align closely with the market, reinforcing the prevailing sentiment.

• 1 Current market probability shows a strong lean towards NO.
• 2 AI probability slightly favors NO, indicating consensus.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty among traders.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.