Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 1?

Market predicts Wellington's temperature will stay below 20°C on April 1.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 20°C, with a market probability of 99.2% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a significantly lower probability for 'YES' at 3.8%. Given the confidence level of 55/100, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors temperatures below 20°C.
• 2 High market probability suggests confidence in the forecast.
• 3 AI analysis aligns with market, indicating low likelihood of higher temperatures.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.