Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 16?

Market favors temperatures below 21°C in Wellington on March 16.

The prediction market indicates a 73% probability that the highest temperature in Wellington will not reach 21°C, while the Pulse AI gives a slightly higher chance of 30% for a YES outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and only 8 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans strongly towards NO.
• 2 Weather forecasts suggest cooler temperatures than 21°C.
• 3 Market probability aligns closely with AI predictions.
• 4 Limited time to expiry may affect trading activity.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the outcome.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.