Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 18?

High confidence that Wellington's temperature will reach 21°C on March 18.

The prediction market shows a very high probability of 99.95% for Wellington reaching 21°C on March 18, indicating strong consensus among participants. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a high level of confidence in the forecast. With an edge of -0.95, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting a balanced assessment of the situation.

• 1 Market probability is extremely high at 99.95% for YES.
• 2 Pulse AI supports the market with a 99% probability for YES.
• 3 The edge of -0.95 suggests fair market pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is strong at 85 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.