Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 19?

The market strongly favors temperatures below 21°C in Wellington on March 19.

The prediction market indicates a 99.95% probability that the highest temperature will not reach 21°C in Wellington on March 19, suggesting a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for both outcomes, indicating a low likelihood of reaching 21°C. With only 5 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight divergence with YES at 1%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 5 hours, limiting potential shifts.
• 5 Edge of 0.95 suggests the market is fairly priced.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.