Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 12?

Wellington's temperature on March 12 is uncertain, with a slight lean towards below 21°C.

The prediction market shows a 55% probability for temperatures below 21°C, while the AI model suggests a tighter margin with 52% for the same outcome. With only 12 hours until expiry and a confidence level of 60/100, the market reflects a balanced view on this weather prediction.

• 1 Market probability indicates a slight preference for temperatures below 21°C.
• 2 AI model suggests a very close contest between YES and NO outcomes.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to the market dynamics.
• 5 Current market pricing appears fair, with a low edge of 3.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.