Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28?

The market predicts a low chance of Wellington reaching 22°C on March 28.

Current market probabilities indicate a 6.5% chance of the highest temperature in Wellington being 22°C on March 28, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting a general expectation of cooler weather. Given the edge of 5 and confidence level of 50/100, there is insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Market probability for YES is low at 6.5%.
• 2 NO probability is significantly higher at 93.5%.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 11.5%.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 48 hours remaining.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.