Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

The market leans towards no impact on the Kharg Island oil terminal by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 59% likelihood that the Kharg Island oil terminal will not be hit by March 31, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 42.5% for a hit. The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, and the confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Current market probability favors a 'no' outcome at 59%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is close, indicating a slight bias towards 'yes'.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is balanced and fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 509 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.