Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Market strongly favors a NO outcome for the next US-Iran meeting location.

The prediction market indicates a high probability that the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting will not take place in another European country, with a market probability of 99.3% for NO. The Pulse AI further supports this outlook with a probability of 95.8% for NO, suggesting a consensus against the likelihood of such a meeting occurring in Europe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability is significantly higher than the AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is lengthy at 2267 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa o