Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for the US-Iran meeting location.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.75% likelihood that the next US-Iran meeting will not occur in Iraq. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a 96.25% probability for the NO outcome, suggesting a consensus on the location being elsewhere.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Iraq as the meeting location.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a strong consensus against Iraq hosting the meeting.
• 3 Current geopolitical tensions may influence the final decision on the meeting location.
• 4 The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments in diplomacy.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa o