The market strongly favors a NO outcome for the next US-Iran meeting being in Qatar.
Current market probabilities indicate a 97.1% likelihood that the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting will not occur in Qatar. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 6.4% for a YES outcome, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100, indicating uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape. With a time to expiry of 2270 hours, there is ample time for developments that could influence these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa o