Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?

The market strongly favors that the next US-Iran meeting will not be in Saudi Arabia.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that the next diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran will not take place in Saudi Arabia, with a consensus probability of 99.65% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.85%, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a minor chance of 'YES' at 3.85%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 2294 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa o