The market strongly favors that the next US-Iran meeting will not be in the UAE.
With a market probability of 98.65% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against the meeting occurring in the UAE. The Pulse AI probability also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.85%. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, indicating moderate confidence in the current predictions.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa o