Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

The market strongly favors that the next US-Iran meeting will not be in the U.S.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.5%) that the next diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran will not take place in the United States. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with only a 4% chance assigned to the meeting occurring in the U.S. This suggests a consensus among participants that geopolitical factors may hinder such an event.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of a YES.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current information.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2268 hours, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa o