Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?

Market predicts a low chance of S&P 500 changing by 10% in Q1 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against a 10% change in the S&P 500 for Q1 2026, with a 99.55% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a positive outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a strong consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical trends indicate that large percentage changes are less common.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 230 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published fo