Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?

Market strongly favors no significant change in S&P 500 for Q1 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (97.8%) that the S&P 500 will not see a percentage change between 2% and 3% in Q1 2026. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a market probability closely aligning with the Pulse AI's assessment, the market appears to be fairly priced with a slight edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a stable S&P 500 performance.
• 2 Key factors include economic indicators and market volatility.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest limited large swings in Q1.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading volume.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 229 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published fo