Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%?

Market predicts low likelihood of S&P 500 change between 5% and 6% in Q1 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the S&P 500 experiencing a percentage change between 5% and 6% in Q1 2026, with a market probability of only 0.45% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of such a change occurring.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical trends suggest limited volatility in the S&P 500 during Q1.
• 3 Liquidity appears stable, with no major fluctuations in trading volume.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 229 hours until expiry.
• 5 Market is fairly priced, indicating balanced views among participants.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published fo