Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Market strongly favors a decline in the S&P 500 for Q1 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of a negative percentage change in the S&P 500 for Q1 2026, with a consensus around 93.5%. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a robust expectation of market decline. The edge of -1.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in this prediction.

• 1 High market probability suggests strong bearish sentiment.
• 2 Pulse AI closely matches market predictions with 92% probability.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 230 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a slight negative edge.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published fo