Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for The Secret Agent winning Best Casting.

Current market probabilities indicate a minimal chance of The Secret Agent winning Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards, with a consensus of 99.95% for 'NO.' The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.05%, but overall confidence remains high that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability for 'NO' is extremely high at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly elevated chance for 'YES' at 2.05%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is strong at 80/100, suggesting reliability in current predictions.
• 5 No clear time pressure is indicated, as the expiry time is unknown.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Achievement in Casting.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Achievement in Casting when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.