Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

The Secret Agent has a 28% chance of winning Best International Feature Film at the Oscars.

The market shows a 28% probability for The Secret Agent to win Best International Feature Film, while the Pulse AI estimates a slightly higher chance at 31.5%. The overall sentiment leans towards a NO outcome, indicating skepticism about its chances against competitors.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome with 72% probability.
• 2 The Pulse AI suggests a slightly more optimistic view for YES at 31.5%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the market dynamics.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.