The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is unlikely to be the top grossing film of 2026.
Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Super Mario Galaxy Movie will not be the top grossing film of 2026, with a 69.5% chance of 'NO'. The market appears fairly priced based on the current sentiment and the AI's slightly higher probability estimate.
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.