Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is unlikely to be the top grossing film of 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Super Mario Galaxy Movie will not be the top grossing film of 2026, with a 69.5% chance of 'NO'. The market appears fairly priced based on the current sentiment and the AI's slightly higher probability estimate.

• 1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 69.5%, indicating skepticism about top grossing potential.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 32.5%, reflecting some optimism.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates that the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7122 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.