Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Low probability for UK warships in the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026.

The market indicates an 18% chance of the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026, with a stronger consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 21.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests potential market undervaluation.
• 3 Historical trends show limited UK naval presence in the region.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with a reasonable edge.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as off