Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

The market indicates a lower likelihood of U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026.

Currently, the market probability for the U.S. sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz stands at 36%, with a pulse verdict leaning towards 'NO'. The AI probability slightly favors 'YES' at 39.5%, suggesting a moderate divergence in expectations but overall consensus on a lower likelihood.

• 1 Market probability shows a clear preference for 'NO'.
• 2 AI probability indicates a slight edge towards 'YES'.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 749 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as off