Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?

Market suggests low probability of US accusing Iran in the Oslo Embassy attack.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that the US will not accuse Iran regarding the Oslo Embassy attack, with a NO probability of 79.5%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus on this outcome. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting moderate confidence in the current sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a consensus on the lack of US accusations.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty remains.
• 4 Historical context may influence perceptions of US-Iran relations.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.

Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.

The primary resolution source will be official government statements.

Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.