Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?

The market suggests a low likelihood of a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 29% chance of a US cyberattack on Iran by the end of March, with a stronger consensus against it at 71%. The Pulse AI model slightly increases the probability to 32.5%, suggesting some uncertainty remains in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Market probability shows a clear preference for 'NO'.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher than market, indicating some divergence.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 524 hours, adding urgency to market movements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.

To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.

Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.

Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.

Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of k