Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026.

With a market probability of 22% for a U.S. invasion and 78% against, the consensus leans heavily towards no invasion occurring. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiments and factors influencing this prediction are balanced.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 The probability of invasion remains stable at 22%, indicating low confidence in a military action.
• 3 Historical context shows limited U.S. military interventions in Latin America in recent years.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate, reflecting balanced trading activity.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.