Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

The market indicates a low probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027.

Current market probabilities suggest a 32.5% chance of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, with a stronger consensus against it at 67.5%. The Pulse AI aligns closely with these figures, indicating a slight edge towards the 'NO' outcome, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with an 80% confidence level.

• 1 Market shows a clear preference for a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects stability in U.S.-Iran relations.
• 3 Historical context suggests low likelihood of direct military action.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate for market participants.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.