Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026.

With an 8% probability for a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, the market strongly favors a 'NO' outcome at 92%. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in this prediction, reflecting current geopolitical stability and public sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability reflects a stable geopolitical context.
• 3 Market pricing indicates no edge, suggesting fair valuation.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.