Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of U.S. invasion of Venezuela by 2026.

With a market probability of 12.5% for a U.S. invasion of Venezuela, the consensus leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome at 87.5%. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiments and expectations are stable without significant pressure for change.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of invasion is low compared to historical contexts.
• 3 Market pricing suggests balanced expectations among participants.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 513 hours.
• 5 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong market belief in the current probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.